August 13, 2004

Google IEM Futures Market Data

I've been trying to figure out if there's some rational way to figure out what's a good bid for the Google IPO price. There's a real market even now, part of the "Iowa Electronic Markets":

The Iowa Electronic Markets are real-money futures markets in which contract payoffs depend on economic and political events such as elections. These markets are operated by faculty at the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business as part of our research and teaching mission.

They're running an IPO Google market

But unfortunately for fans of the idea of markets for everything, the results are very unimpressive.

For exact numbers, there doesn't seem to be much trading data (nothing on many days)

For ranges, there's still not much data. It's sparse and irregular.

As far as I can read it, the market oracle says "Future cloudy. Ask again later."

By Seth Finkelstein | posted in google | on August 13, 2004 12:12 AM (Infothought permalink) | Followups
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I've heard various numbers, but from what I understand, over 90% of all money transfers in the U.S. are based on speculation. This has a huge impact on the vulnerability of the economy. Therefore, a lack of speculation in the Iowa Electronic Markets may not be a bad thing.

Posted by: Drew Vogel at August 13, 2004 10:33 AM