Howard Dean and the banality of "Social Software"
An inevitable reaction to the failure of the Great Internet God, is view it as the Great Internet Satan. But perhaps social software, blogging, etc. was neither Deity nor Devil, but merely banal.
There's a good quote in Andrew Orlowski's article Howard Dean's Net architect blasts 'emergent' punditocracy:
"Campaigns have always been decentralized and disorganized. There's always authorization and endorsement behind the scenes. In 2000, McCain's campaign was totally disorganized outside the main little bubble that they had. We were simply able to have more disorganized people!"
Presidential campaigns are big, geographically widespread, rambling organizations. A moment's thought will show they can't be too centralized by their very nature. Let's turn it around. Let's assume the Dean campaign was not extraordinary in any way we can. That is, nothing will be accounted extraordinary if it can be explained conventionally (extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence - not press-hype).
Yes, Dean has dedicated volunteers. But Kerry has campaigners who give the impression they'd literally take a bullet for him (which, one has to admit, would be much more impressive that writing on a blog, or even letters/canvassing). Yes, Dean raised much money, - but there was nothing unique about him which raised that money (rather than being an earlier-adopter of Internet fund-raising).
However, there's also downsides which didn't get discussed much in the hype. Dean is a rookie. His campaign managers (past and present) may have been experienced - but he was not. Experience counts in campaigning. While money talks, his opponents also had growls of their own, sometimes against him. Even if you raise more money than everyone else, if several of them gang up on you with attack-ads, you go down.
And again, if you campaign as Mr. Anti-War, and ride high when the war is more in the news, it's not surprising to fade as the war fades.
So maybe the all the Internet chatter was just ... chatter. Didn't help much, didn't hurt much. Or at least not nearly as much as would make The Internet Revolutionize Politics.
By Seth Finkelstein | posted in cyberblather , politics | on January 31, 2004 11:56 PM (Infothought permalink) | Followups
And again, if you campaign as Mr. Anti-War, and ride high when the war is more in the news, it's not surprising to fade as the war fades.
Aside from your rather ridiculous if somewhat amusing bit of Dean bubble sophistry, whatever are you blathering on about, man?
3 U.S. soldiers dead today in Kirkuk, dozens dead this year, Kay's bombshell that those Saddamite WMD's don't exist and haven't for years, Bush's about face today on an independent intelligence probe into war claims due to an internal palace revolt in the republican party...just because some of the massively disengaged american populace who probably never heard of Dean (or Webvan for that matter) have changed the channel doesn't mean we've all swallowed the blue pill....'cept maybe you...
"Dean is a rookie."
The citizens of Vermont might take a different view. But I will concede that Dean may be a rookie in terms of hardball politics. It would be interesting to consider how many politicians get puked on and rise to campaign again.
Now that Ms. Washington-Williams has made it okay for Republicans to have illegitimate black children, might we see McCain back in a future presidential race?
As for Gore, I think Queer Eye for the Straight Guy has had a profound effect on the public's perception of sartorial consultants. Maybe he'll be back!
"fade as the war fades"
The war is not fading.
"So maybe the all the Internet chatter was just ... chatter"
There are three elements at work in a caucus/primary: grassroots organizing, campaign organizing, media. You don't need the Internet for this stuff, but the Internet can make communication more efficient.
Would Dean have gotten early media attention without his success in Internet fund-raising and organizing?
"But Kerry has campaigners who give the impression they'd literally take a bullet for him"
Well, that's a nice way of putting it. Turn it around, how many would balk at defaming an opponent? Would any be up for physically intimidating the other team? Kerry and Schwarzenegger supporters have been reported physically intimidating political opponents.
Let's just hope all the political "hate speech" does not lead to further violence.
Mark:
"... because some of the massively disengaged american populace who probably never heard of Dean ... have changed the channel ..."
AKA - "The voters have spoken - the bastards".
That they changed the channel is one reason (not all, but one) for Dean's decline. It may not be a happy reason, but there it is.
Sean:
Dean is a rookie in Presidential campaigning - that's way out of the Vermont league, in terms of scale. Doesn't mean he's a bad guy. But he was inexperienced, and that's a factor which hurt him against more experienced opponents (including quite possibly, as you note, downright intimidation)
Sure, the money and buzz got him media attention - but my point was, he was less successful in organizing than he seemed. Sort of "Warning - voter-getting ability is smaller than it appears in pundit-mirror".