You missed another feature shared by Dean's campaign and bubble start-ups: burning through a huge wad of cash very quickly.

Um, this seems to completely overlook the reality of politics. You're just a few Markov steps off from deconstructist babbling. (How's that for an intellectual slam ^_^;)

The situation is complicated, but as you state, Dean's advertising was not executed well. Too much money was spent, and the television spots have not been greatly praised. Perhaps they were effective in keeping third in Iowa, maybe not. Neither of us is qualified to do that analysis.

Most damning of all is the return of push polling and dirty tricks, and you ignore this critical factor. Last primary, McCain takes it hard and loses South Carolina, this time puke tactics from the Kerry camp (and perhaps others, all we know is that someone caught a Kerry staffer on video) may have kept Dean out of first place in New Hampshire. Some polls had him on the verge of a tie with Kerry, but then... If you heard the slurs on Dean by seemingly respectable campaign volunteers, it's just sickening.

So now Dean's campaign is in jeopardy. I expect to contribute soon, and I believe he should win. Did you listen to any of these men? All have some good answers when questioned by the public, but the policy proposals of Dean and Edwards seem the best.

As I said before, however, Edwards does not have the pragmatic edge that Dean has... And at the end of the day, DeLay will declare a Kerry or Edwards presidency "dead on arrival".

Same thing for Dean, but he will walk out into the garden and expose the fascists running our government. He will make an issue of the PNAC, AEI and the Texas GOP platform (never repudiated by Bush). In short, if he cannot get the right things done, he will shore up the judicial branch and declare war on the legislature.

Does anybody think for a second that Edwards or Kerry have what it takes to shut down the government? Will they cast futile vetoes on principle?

This tinfoil hat messes up my hair, but I think Dean is what America needs. Democracy is drying up, and without radical correction, we could be suffering under reality-dictating (corporatist) government for a long time to come.

[Maybe you haven't held enough positions in large business organizations to know this, but for many workers, corporate bosses dictate reality. Anyone who doesn't see this in the Bush Administration isn't paying attention. Example: see "Texas Miracle".]

sean, to clarify: slurs by the kerry campaign took the Dean campaign down?

Question: slurs by the Kerry campaign took the Dean campaign down?

Answer: Maybe.

What I was trying to say is that there some truth to be gleaned from recent IPO bust-boom comparisons. Seth is really onto something when he talks about media hype. But there are lots of points where such analogies fail.

And so back to the question, you would have to research the allegations yourself, but from what I have read:

1) Kerry staffer was caught on video smearing Dean. The staffer was booted. Depending on the weather, we should expect Seth to argue that this means nothing, or that it is unlikely a barrel contains only *one* spoiled apple.

2) There were inappropriate "robocalls", mysteriously targeting only Dean supporters.

Iowa is hard to figure because of the Gephardt-Dean mud fight, but it looks like hardball tactics may have given Kerry a strong finish in New Hampshire.

The danger to Kerry was a weak first place, or a tie.

Kerry looks strong, Dean looks weak, but the showdown is expected in Wisconsin (territory where playing dirty might be extremely risky).